Jake's Picks - December 26th with quick writeups

-3.3 units this year
8-3 on 2 Unit Plays

Rangers/Penguins Under 6 -110 2 Unit
Columbus/Detroit Under 6 -130
Colorado +112
Chicago -.5 +104
Chicago/Minnesota Over 4.5 -126
Vancouver/Edmonton Over 5 -121
Anaheim +132
Anaheim/San Jose Over 5 -115

I know I once again have a large amount of plays, but feel confident as I was more selective than normal and still felt these were strong plays.

Rangers/Penguins Under 6 -110 2 Unit
A 6 in this game? Since the Rangers got Dunham in goal they have been doing decent on the defensive end. They have given up an average of 2.7 goals with Dunham starting, and go against a Pittsburgh offense having some troubles. Pitt is averaging 2 goals per game their last 5. The Rangers are not scoring well at all, gettin 1.6 goals a game their last 5. Pittsburgh's goalkeeping has been iffy all year, but have scored over 3 just once in their last 10 games, and Pittsburgh has only given up 3 a game their last 5. This game looks like a push at worst to me, and I capped it at 5 goals tops.

Columbus/Detroit Under 6 -130
Another total that has me somewhat baffled. These guys played just a few days ago to a 1-0 Detroit win. I don't see why this should suddenly turn into a scoring-fest. Columbus is getting 2.4 a game their last 5, Detroit is getting 2.6. Columbus is giving up 2.4, Columbus is giving up 1.8. Neither team has gone over 5 in their last 3 games, and this total is set too high as well.

Colorado +112
Colorado has been playin great, and should come out of this with a victory. Colorady already has won in St. Louis this year, and have a 7-3-3-3 record away from home ice. Both teams are scoring well, averaging 3.2 goals a game their last 5, but the goalie edge goes to Coloroad. Roy is giving up only 1.8 goals per game his last 5, while St. Louis is giving up 2.8 in that span. Colorado should win outright.

Chicago -.5 +104
Chicago/Minnesota Over 4.5 -126
Chicago has been great on home ice this year, maintaining a 12-5-1-0 record there this year. Chicago is also hot right now, winning 8 of their last 10 games while Minnesota has won only 5 of their last 10. Minnesota has scored 2 goals in 3 straight games, Chicago has scored 3 goals in 3 straight games. Minnesota is also allowing a full goal more than Chicago (2 to 3) over their last 5 contests. I'm looking for a 3-2 Chicago win in this one. Go Blackhawks!

Vancouver/Edmonton Over 5 -121
The two meetings between these teams have finished with 7 and 9 goals scored, and this one shouldn't be any different. Vancouver is averaging 3 goals a game their last 5, Edmonton 2.8. Vancouver is giving up 3 a game their last 5, Edmonton 3.8. Vancouver's goalie Cloutier is also questionable for this game, which only helps. This game should be 5.5 with the over favored slightly.

Anaheim +132
Anaheim/San Jose Over 5 -115
Anaheim is playing great hockey, winning 6 of their last 7, and should have a great shot at winning this game. Anaheim's offense is clicking on all cylinders and they are averaging 4.2 goals a game their last 5 contests. They have only scored under 3 goals twice in their last 10 contests. San Jose is scoring decently at 2.4 their last 5, but not nearly as well as Anaheim. Anaheim's netminder is allowing only 1.4 goals a game his last 5, while San Jose's Nabokov has been worse, giving up 4 goals a game his last 5, largely due to a 9 goal game that Ottawa put up. He is still giving up 2.75 goals a game in that span if you take out the 9 goal game. I'm looking for Anaheim to get 4 goals in this one and easily win.

Good luck everyone.

MBPicks.com

 

[SSI]

your right jake, too many plays..

The People's Champ

 

SSI, you see my reasoning for the plays today. Which ones would you scratch? Reading the writeups they all look pretty solid to me. I just don't see which ones are the weaker link. Any advice?

 

[SSI]

Jake its tough to sit here and say which one's you will lose,, im just saying that 8 bets today is too many,,, i bet chi-1/2 and the over in ana/sj game myself,, i also like a couple of your plays,,, its not a bad card and i think you will win more than you lose,,,, i just think you need to find a way to bet less games,, I see your reasoning in all the games you selected,, i told you in another thread however that one could have an opinion or strong feeling on every game.. your money management seems to be ok,, i think you laid -1.30 on one of them,, i cant remember now.. im going to ponder your question to me some more and write you back again on this subject,,,,, all i can tell you is that betting 8 hockey games on a normal day is too many..

The People's Champ

 

[SSI]

Jake, you know as well as i, that in these or any sporting event anything can happen,,, sometimes plays that look great are the ones that we lose. Id have taken ana+1/2 (-1.10) before id taken them on pickem line. i bet 3 games today but i liked about 6... more later...

The People's Champ

 

[SSI]

dropped your 2 unit game jake,, this is why 90% of all my plays are for 1 unit,, lose the ones that you think you will win,, common theme,,, hope it gets better for you,, we had pitt and it doesnt get any easier than this one,, hope you hit chi and the over in sj/ana game, im on them.. jake san jose has owned ana lately, hope it turns for you..

The People's Champ

 

Just FYI I am now 8-4 on 2 unit NHL plays, so I haven't fell victim to the "lose the ones you think you will win" as you mentioned. Not looking like a good day, but I have no idea how to limit my plays. I noticed that San Jose easily beat Anaheim a little bit ago, but Anaheim is hot hot hot. Good luck in the games we have in common though buddy. Thanks for trying to put me on the right track.

Rangers/Penguins Under 6 -110 2 Unit L
Columbus/Detroit Under 6 -130 P
Colorado +112 L
Chicago -.5 +104 L
Chicago/Minnesota Over 4.5 -126 L
Vancouver/Edmonton Over 5 -121
Anaheim +132
Anaheim/San Jose Over 5 -115

 

Well after getting forced into a push by an empty net goal in the final seconds in Detroit/Columbus, I got a win with one in Vancouver. Finally got a win today. Hopefully the last 2 turn out well.

 

[SSI]

1-5-2 and lost your 2 unit play,,, thats why it was too many games.. not being a smart ass here, just hoping you can pull things together,, cut those plays down unless your hot.. you may not believe that but streaks are what this business is about,, press good ones and lighten up on bad ones..

The People's Champ

 

I have to say I think that is a horrible idea. Betting more on a "hot streak"? You have to realize that hot streaks aren't you suddenly gaining a hightened knowledge of how to cap a sport, they are just a string of wins. You can just as easily win 3 days in a row then go 0-8 the next. There is no logical reason to bet more on a "hot streak" or less on a "cold streak" because all they are is a string of good or bad luck that can change instantaneously. You don't suddenly learn to cap better all of a sudden or suddenly lose all your capping skill on cold streaks. Thanks for the advice, but I really disagree with that theory of yours. With that being said, I'll try and cut down on my plays today.

 

[SSI]

Jake ask anyone who has gambled for a long time about streaks,, it is what this is all about,, have you ever read John Patrick's book,, "So you want to be a gambler", its worth a read... pose this question out about streaks.. gamblers live and die with them,, learn to use them to your advantage,, press winning one and cut losing ones, this is how to survive trading stocks as well.. my best to you jake but streaks are real, i dont know why they occur but they do...

The People's Champ